Sterling has a strong start to the week

Stuart Cowell Analysis

BoE Deputy Governor Ramsden made hawkish remarks in an interview in yesterday’s Sunday Times, remarking that “relative to where I was, I see the case for rising interest rates sooner than later.” His comments are all more notable for the fact that Ramsden was one of two dissenters on the MPC who voted against the decision to hike the repo …


Strong ADP but weak correlation to NFP

Stuart Cowell Analysis

U.S. ADP reported private payrolls increased 234k in January from a revised 242k gain in December (was revised down from 250k). The service sector added 212k and the goods sector rose 22k. In the former, trade/transport rose 51k and helped pace the headline gain. Education and health added 47k, while employment in leisure and hospitality increased 46k. For the goods …


Bitcoin – The Gap Beckons Again

Stuart Cowell Analysis

It could just be a final day of the month thing, but with BTCUSD trading below $10,000 again today it looks more like an evolving trend. The break below $15,000 and the Bollinger band Midline back on January 8 was the start of the move and with increasing noise of regulation, coin thefts, and exchange shutdowns the Gap on the …


EURUSD pressured ahead of NFP

Stuart Cowell Analysis

EURUSD is down for a sixth consecutive session, logging a 16-day low at 1.1735. Progress in the corporate-friendly tax cuts has underpinned the dollar, while the euro itself has been fairing better against other currencies, including the yen and Swiss franc, although has lost ground to the pound following news of an accord being reaching between the EU and UK …


Good UK Manufacturing PMI’s GBP takes a dip

Stuart Cowell Analysis

Profit takers swirling around cable this morning, even the big beat for manufacturing PMI’s has not helped it hold 1.3500. The Markit UK Manufacturing PMI was 58.2 way over expectations at 56.8 and the highest recorded since December 2013. Markit reports that output, new orders, and employment all rose at faster rates. Meanwhile, investment goods new orders increased at its …


Gold sinks to six day low under $1280

Stuart Cowell Analysis

GOLD fell yesterday significantly by a reportedly $6 bln nominal sale ahead of the U.S. GDP announcement. The key commodity fell from near $1,294.00 to $1,285.00. Modest dollar strength after the GDP data continued it closed the day below the 50-day moving average and right on the 20-day moving average at 1283.50, a six-day low. This level breached the important …


Cable weighed by Strong US Consumer Confidence

Stuart Cowell Analysis

U.S. consumer confidence climbed 3.3 points to 129.5 in November after rising 5.6 points to 126.2 in October (revised form 125.9. It was 109.4 a year ago. Confidence has come a long way over the past year. Strength was in the expectations component which rose to 113.3 from 109.0 (revised from 109.1). The current conditions index improved to 153.9 from …


Oil remains well bid ahead of Vienna

Stuart Cowell Analysis

USOil pulled back from Friday’s two-plus year highs of $59.05, trading to $57.80 lows in early N.Y. dealings. Oil market focus has shifted to the November 30 OPEC meeting, where consensus is the group, including non-OPEC producers such as Russia, will agree to extend the current agreement to cap output at about 1.8 mln bpd under production levels seen at …


US OIL rallies over $56.00

Stuart Cowell Analysis

US Oil rallied to $56.38 highs during the London morning session, with gains reportedly coming on the back of comments from Saudi energy minister. According to the Wall Street Journal, the minister said that he favors further production cuts to keep market rebalancing efforts underway, adding that details would be forthcoming at the November 30 OPEC meeting. Record U.S. production …


Cable catches a bid and reverses BOE Move

Stuart Cowell Analysis

The UK economy has gone from top of G7 leaderboard to almost bottom, says Mark Carney “We have not done as well in the short term as we would have done if the vote had gone the other way”, Mr. Carney said on Thursday – The Independent (UK). That and the move by Special Counsel Robert Mueller to subpoena President …