EURGBP

Sterling Slips after May in Florence

Stuart Cowell Analysis

Sterling has shed about 0.5% as PM May speaks in Florence, where she has rejected the Norwegian and Canadian models as being unsatisfactory for the UK, admitting that she is not pretending that you can have all the advantages of the single market with none of the disadvantages. Cable dove to a low of 1.3487 from levels near 1.3480, subsequently …

NZDUSD

Equinox Elections – New Zealand & Germany

Stuart Cowell Analysis

This weekend sees “Equinox” general elections in New Zealand on Saturday and Germany on Sunday. As New Zealand moves into Spring the balance of the equinox and Kiwi politics has been called into question. The rapid rise of the opposition Labour party, under its new leader Jacinda Arden has drawn bizarre parallels with both Jeremy Corbyn in the UK and …

EURUSD

FED squeeze the USD Bears

Stuart Cowell Analysis

The dollar has opened in London about 1% higher following the Fed’s announcement yesterday, which confirmed the start of a QT program, as had been widely anticipated, but showed via the dot plot that another rate hike is in the works before year-end followed by another three hikes in 2018. The BoJ subsequently announced unchanged policy, recommitting to ultra-accommodative policy …

GBPUSD

Cable breaks higher on strong retail sales

Stuart Cowell Analysis

UK August retail sales beat expectations, rising 1.0% m/m and by 2.8% on the year-on-year comparison. The respective median forecasts had been for much more modest growth rates of 0.2% m/m and 1.3% y/y. July data were also revised higher, to 0.7% m/m, from 0.5%, and to 1.7% y/y, from 1.5% y/y. Good news as the consumer sector is the …

GBPUSD

Cable breaks over 13600 as dove becomes hawk

Stuart Cowell Analysis 0 Comments

Sterling was boosted as BoE dove turned hawk, with MPC member Vlieghe saying earlier that a hike could come “as early as in the coming months. This was notable as Vlieghe has been one of the most dovish members on the policy committee, being the only dissenter in favour of cutting rates in July 2016 (before the Brexit vote), for …

USDJPY

Harvey impacts inflation USDJPY remains volatile

Stuart Cowell Analysis 0 Comments

The 0.4% August U.S. CPI headline rise with a 0.2% core price gain both beat estimates thanks to Harvey, with an expected 2.8% energy price rise and a 0.1% food price uptick, but with a core price lift from gains of 4.4% for lodging away from home and 5.1% for hotel costs. We saw a third consecutive 0.3% gain for …

GBPUSD

Tame US PPI numbers dent the USD

Stuart Cowell Analysis 0 Comments

The 0.2% August U.S. PPI headline rise with a 0.1% core price increase undershot estimates thanks to a lean 0.1% service price increase, with a flat trade service figure and a 0.3% gain for transportation and warehousing services. We saw the largely expected figure for goods prices, with a 3.3% energy price rise and a 1.3% food price drop that …

APPLE

APPLE 2017 – Still a growth stock?

Stuart Cowell Analysis 0 Comments

There has been a lot written about the world’s largest company recently and everyone has a view about APPLE (a bit like Marmite, you either love ‘em or hate ‘em). September is the month of the new product announcement and tomorrow its 2017’s turn and the much heralded (and awaited) iPhone 8 with its OLED screen and $1,000+ price tag …

NZDUSD

Dollar woes prevail NZDUSD breach 07300

Stuart Cowell Analysis 0 Comments

The greenbacks woes continued its path lower, leaving EURUSD at 33-month highs of 1.2092, and USDJPY at 10-month lows of 107.36. Risk-off remains in place, driven by N. Korea, U.S. politics, and another hurricane about to hit the U.S. Southeast. The U.S. calendar is light to end the week, but features July wholesale figures, where inventories are expected at up …

EURUSD

ECB and Initial Claims push EURUSD over 1.2000

Stuart Cowell Analysis 0 Comments

The combination of a bland and unchanging ECB statement and press conference and the big miss in weekly jobs claims EURUSD retakes 1.2000 and holds north of this key psychological zone. ECB likely to take bulk of policy decisions in October unless there are unforeseen events until then, according to Draghi. So we will likely get a broad framework for …