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Euro ahead of Italian Election and German Coalition

Andria Pichidi Analysis

ECB seen making only small tweaks to guidance next week. Bloomberg and Reuters surveys confirms that central bank watchers are pushing back expectations for a major change in guidance amid ongoing market volatility, a still strong EUR and dovish data releases including weak confidence data and a dip in headline HICP to just 1.2% y/y. Data since the last policy …

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Pound remains in narrow range ahead of US Open

Andria Pichidi Analysis

The pound is trading with little direction presently, and is at near net unchanged levels on the day so far versus the dollar and other majors. Cable has settled in the mid-to-upper 1.39s after tumbling yesterday over a big figure from the day’s high to a 1.3928 low. The pound didn’t see a lasting bid following remarks by BoE Deputy …

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EURUSD maintaining a sideways phase?

Andria Pichidi Analysis

Today European stock markets move higher, led by the GER30, which is up 0.85%. The UK100 is trading behind but also up 0.39%. The move higher in European markets comes after a largely positive session in Asia overnight that was underpinned by gains on Wall Street and a dip in long yields. However, while Bund yields declined early in the …

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Strong Canadian CPI contrasts with recent data

Andria Pichidi Analysis

Canada CPI slowed to a 1.7% growth rate in January (y/y, nsa) from the 1.9% pace in December. CPI surged 0.7% on a month comparable basis (m/m, nsa) after the 0.4% drop in December. The annual and month comparable growth rates overshot projections (median +0.5%, +1.5%), realizing the upside risk around this report. A 7.8% bounce in gasoline prices during …

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GBPJPY – Retesting February’s Low?

Andria Pichidi Analysis

The GBPJPY is traded bearishly for a 2nd consecutive day, and a 3rd consecutive week as well. This aggressive rally seen the last 2 weeks, after the fall below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level near 156.00 which has been holding since 2016, drove the price below the 20 and 50- DAY SMA. Today, the miss of the UK GDP for …

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ZEW suggests limits to German growth

Andria Pichidi Analysis

The dollar rebound has gained some traction in the London AM session, concomitantly with market narratives talking about the rise in 2-year Treasury yields to near two-year highs (which has been seen ahead of the auction of 2-year notes later today). The greenback is presently showing a 0,4% gain versus the euro, and a 0.5% rise against the yen. EURUSD …

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Mixed Footing for Sterling

Andria Pichidi Analysis

Sterling has started the new week on a mixed footing, up versus the yen, down versus the euro while sitting at near net unchanged levels versus the dollar. Cable edged out a two-session low earlier, during a broader rebound in the dollar, at 1.3993, and has since worked back to levels around 1.4020-30, which is near the midway point of …

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USOil: Rising for the 4th Day

Andria Pichidi Analysis

On Friday, Baker-Hughes released its weekly oil rig count report, revealing a 7-rig increase, to 798, and up 201 from a year ago. This marks the 4th consecutive week of increases and indicates further gains in U.S. production, which last week topped at a record 10.25 mln bpd. USOIL fell to $61.20 from near $61.86 after the report. The USoil …

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US equites extended rebound as USDIndex stabilised

Andria Pichidi Analysis

Last week, the beleaguered dollar index suddenly has begun to look like a port in a storm after alleged beggar-thy-neighbour rhetoric from Treasury Secretary Mnuchin saw it tumble as low as 88.42 in January before reviving to the 90.50 area. The move was provided by the jump in average hourly earnings in the January employment report, which rekindled Fed tightening …

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Greenback shot higher on NFP

Andria Pichidi Analysis

The dollar shot higher following the jobs report, which saw NFP rise 200k versus consensus expectations for a 184k rise. EURUSD skidded to 1.2437 from 1.2490, as USDJPY rallied to 110.37 from 109.85. Gold fell in the aftermath of the jobs report, where strong hourly earnings data saw yields and the dollar shot higher. The contract fell from $1,349.00 to …